​The tangled web of Canadian politics is fast becoming even more tangled.

Jagmeet Singh, the federal NDP leader announced Sept. 4 that his party has ripped up its confidence and supply agreement with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Singh said: “In the next federal election, Canadians will choose between Pierre Poilievre’s callous cuts or hope.  Hope that when we stand united, we win.  That Canada’s middle class will once again thrive together.”

The NDP leader described the government’s decision to impose binding arbitration to end the dispute between the rail workers and their employers as “a line in the sand that was crossed.”
All this sounds like a pretty weak rationale by the NDP leader.

Embarrassingly for Mr. Singh, it appeared to many that he was doing the bidding of Conservative Leader Poilievre who had just demanded that Singh break the agreement with the Liberals and precipitate what Poilievre hopes will be “The Carbon Tax Election.”

As noted in this space Aug. 30, Poilievre also made the demeaning comment that the only thing that had been holding Singh back from breaking the alliance with the Liberals was the prospect of him receiving his large Parliamentary pension in February. This, despite the fact that Poilievre has already served sufficient time in the House and government to qualify for his own very generous pension.

 Poilievre is thirsting for an early election because he believes he could defeat Trudeau and his Liberals right now with one hand tied behind his back. However, it would be surprising if the end of the confidence and supply agreement will result in an election very soon. 

The NDP are not in a strong position, and they will not rush to bring down the Liberal government. They will very likely take votes in Parliament one by one and keep the Liberals in power just as they have done for the last few years. With over a year remaining in their term in power, the Liberals would be crazy to initiate another election right away. But that does not mean that Justin Trudeau is secure as Prime Minister.

A second key feature in our national politics right now is the Montreal by-election coming up on Sept. 16. If the result is a second Liberal defeat in a safe seat – the second for the party in the past four months – it would be highly dangerous for Prime Minister Trudeau. Three facts about the Lasalle-Emard-Verdun byelection speak much more strongly than polls.

 Firstly, over 50 key workers for the Liberals who strongly support the plight of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and oppose the incursion into Gaza of the Israeli government have withdrawn their support in the Montreal byelection, because the Trudeau government has taken a middle approach over concern for innocent Palestinians, support for Israeli military incursion into Gaza and the plight of hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.  The Trudeau government’s position on these issues has been very delicate, particularly because a strong spokesperson for the Jewish community, Anthony Housefather, represents Mount Royal a nearby Montreal riding.

Secondly, the Liberal candidate in the Verdun riding, longtime municipal councilor, Laura Palestini, does not consider it wise to put Justin Trudeau’s photograph on her campaign posters or other publicity material.  This speaks more loudly than any public opinion poll could.
Thirdly, electors of the Verdun riding and the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding lost in June by the Liberals, have some lingering bruised feelings about how outgoing cabinet ministers in those ridings were treated by Prime Minister Trudeau. Dr. Carolyn Bennett in Toronto-St. Paul’s had served her riding and the government faithfully for 26 years, including serving under three prime ministers.  David Lametti served in the House of Commons for eight years including four years as Justice Minister. Prior to entering politics, he had a distinguished academic career studying at McGill, Yale and Oxford universities. Why Lametti was dropped from cabinet was never fully explained by Mr. Trudeau. These and other human resource decisions, sloppily and roughly managed, have hurt Trudeau in his close to nine years as Prime Minister.

All this to say, the Liberals and the NDP will be very reluctant to provoke an early national election. NDP leader Singh has failed to develop a nuanced national vision. He speaks endlessly of “corporate greed”, without enunciating a policy based on supporting and enhancing the country’s small business sector. Nor does he express strong policies on Climate Change and other environmental issues.
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As we have already argued in this space, it is time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down. Another byelection defeat, this time in Verdun, would be catastrophic for our Prime Minister.