Premier Danielle Smith, the Donald Trump of Canada, Is Paying Risky Footsie with Alberta Separatism.

Cozying up to her United Conservative Party base, including the separatists among them, has been Premier Smith’s primary way of building her political strength in her close to four years as Premier.
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This week, the Premier vowed to appeal a court ruling that separation would violate Indigenous people’s treaty rights, asserting: “We think that this decision is incorrect in law and anti-democratic and we will be appealing it as a result.”

Justice Shaina Leonard had found that Election Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer did not consider an earlier court decision that separation would ignore First Nations rights.

Premier Smith obviously does not consider the court system to be a vital part of checks and balances in Canadian democracy.

Meanwhile Chief Allan Adam of the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation was incredibly dignified in calmly urging Premier Smith to “take the high road” and accept the court’s ruling, emphasizing that going ahead without meaningful consultation with First Nations is wrong and violates treaty rights.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney now has an important decision to make, one central to the unity of the country, whether to go ahead as soon as this Friday with Premier Smith on a “grand bargain” agreement. The Canada-Alberta agreement hinges on a new industrial carbon pricing framework for Alberta, expected to be at $130 per tonne by 2040, rather that the earlier federal target of $170 by 2030.

These at not just numbers on a page. Former federal Environment Minister Stephen Guibeault, the man who once scaled the CN Tower in Toronto in support of his environmental beliefs, resigned from Cabinet late in 2025 over a weakening of climate policies in the government’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta.

Then there are the concerns of other provinces besides Alberta on the lack of “a level playing field” in carbon pricing. This argument was made by BC Premier David Eby who says his province is in direct competition with Alberta on energy projects.

With First Nations opposing the southern pipeline route, with no clear possibility of being investment partners in this project, chaos now prevails. Surely, this would cause any oil industry proponent of the pipeline project to back away rather than sign on. Indeed, PM Carney has many problems on his plate.

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While the Alberta separatist threat is the hot button issue now, the Parti Quebecois is still promising a third Quebec referendum if it is elected in that province.

Carney’s popularity is running at 60 per cent in the nation, and his policies have brought support in Quebec as well, as indicated by the Liberal byelection victory in Terrebonne riding. But any special treatment of Alberta now is likely to prompt similar demands from Quebec, as well.

A major source of Carney current popularity is how he has held U.S. President Donald Trump at bay with Trump’s selfish trade policies and his blithe references to Canada as the 51st state. Carney’s response has been to seek other trade partners in Europe and Asia and strongly promote projects of “National Importance” at home.

The first of these “grand bargain” projects is the Alberta southern route oil pipeline to tidewater on the Pacific. If Carney succeeds in signing with a bright, canny and ruthless player like Danielle Smith, does he risk tearing Canada apart in the process?

Much is made of the vulnerability of Alberta and Canada to bad foreign actors during a referendum campaign. Usually, Russia is identified as the greatest suspect. Yet, Danielle Smith has cozied up to Donald Trump in the past, such as visiting Trump at his Mar-a-Lago retreat. Members of Trump’s administration have listened to “the woes” of Alberta actors hinting at deals on energy and a warmer friendship than Carney has been prepared to offer.

Trump is a ruthless and erratic player, and who can know what Trump and his minions would be prepared to do if an Alberta separatist referendum were underway.

With the recklessness and unpredictability of Donald Trump, we should note that King Charles III pinned back Trump’s ears during his recent state visit to the U.S.A. We should also point out that this blog writer is no Royalist, although respectful of the “soft power” which a sovereign can assert. The King carried off this role, with aplomb.

Despite Trump’s claims that NATO countries have been of no use to the United States during his war with Iran and did not offer vessels to guard the Gulf of Hormuz, King Charles stated during a warm reception before the joint session of Congress, that NATO is needed to secure lasting peace in the world.

Unlike Trump who has upheld Putin and Russia’s role in the Russo-Ukrainian War, King Charles came down strongly on the side of the “people of Ukraine” and spoke clearly of “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

The ultimate responsibility for how the country can emerge with full consultation with First Nations, a focus on a clean environment, happily competing provinces, a cohesive federal system which does not appear like a checkerboard, is the small task ahead for Prime Minister Mark Carney.