​“Oh, Chosen Ones, it is Time to Put All of Your Markers on One Square.”

The dangerous mix of Donald Trump, Prime Minister Trudeau’s departure and the coming Federal election, is putting huge pressure on Cabinet Ministers and members of the Liberal caucus to pick a winner in the current Liberal Leadership race.

Of the seven candidates thus far, Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland are the front-runners, with the credible, youthful Karina Gould, a distant third.

With no strong Quebec candidate in the running for the party leadership the choice made by two senior Quebec Ministers becomes very important. Both Francois-Phillippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, and Melanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, have declared for Carney. Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc remains the most senior francophone minister in the Cabinet.

Among other senior ministers also supporting Carney are the Labour Minister, Steve MacKinnon, a bilingual Ottawa area MP, originally from PEI. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, the minister most identified with the controversial Carbon Tax, is now saying he is “forced to recognize that the Carbon Tax is “very unpopular.”

Chrystia Freeland, the other front runner, came out of the gate swinging at President Donald Trump, noting that Trump does not like her very much and nor does Vladamir Putin of Russia. The fact is that she can get under Trump’s skin stems  from her tough stance during the NAFTA negotiations, where Canada fared well against the U.S.A. Freeland also speaks strongly about her belief that she is the best candidate to “fight” Trump, although we are left wondering how she would go about preparing to engage in that fight.

Despite her prominent role in the Liberal Government, Freeland has said she would find a replacement for the Carbon Tax.

Since her declaration last Sunday, when she handled demonstrators well and appeared to be on solid ground, Ms. Freeland has turned her attention more inward, saying she will protect the objectives of back bench Liberal MP’s who want a bigger say than they had while Prime Minster Justin Trudeau was in charge.

For his part, Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor has taken a quieter path, low key, and billing himself as an outsider in the Liberal Party with primary interest in improving the country’s economic performance. Rob Russo, the CBC commentator and current correspondent for The Economist magazine, described the  response to Carney’s campaign launch as a “sitting ovation.”  This is probably what he wanted, as he prefers to eschew emotion, compared to the outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Freeland, who have preferred a more emotional approach.

Behind the curtain, Carney has clearly been working hard to attract the support of key cabinet ministers, members of caucus, and prominent members of the Liberal Party hierarchy.

The CBC reports that as of Friday, the Liberal caucus support for the various candidates stands at: thirty-seven for Carney, twenty-five for Freeland and two for Gould.

Other candidates who had submitted their paperwork by the party’s deadline on Thursday, are: Jaime Battiste the Indigenous MP for Sydney-Victoria in Nova Scotia, who describes himself as the happy underdog in the race; Ottawa area MP Chandra Arya, who controversially sat down for a discussion with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,  then in a fight with Mr. Trudeau over serious Indian interference in Canadian affairs, including the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil; businessman and former MP Frank Baylis; and Ruby Dhalia, the former MP who won three back-to-back federal elections in Brampton Ontario.

Conservative Pary Leader Pierre Poilievre has been pretty much in the shadows as the race for the Liberal Leadership heats up. The two greatest targets of Poilievre over the last several years have been PM Trudeau and the Carbon Tax.

Poilievre is the Canadian politician most ideologically in tune with Donald Trump. However, he is now thrust into being a defender of Canadian independence, at a time when the Canadian electorate is riled up on the tariffs issue. Meanwhile, Trudeau is leaving his job, and the members of the Liberal leadership are downplaying the need for the Carbon Tax or are recommending dropping it altogether.

Although Poilievre remains very high in the opinion polls, we can compare his political standing now to the full balloon many of us used to play with as kids, and then, on release of the impressive round balloon, it would buzz around the room losing air all the way.

Then there is Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who seems prepared to pull all American alcohol products off the shelves of Ontario liquor stores. Premier Ford has greatly increased his standing across the country as Chair of the Council of the Federation (the Premiers’ Council) and is an emerging “Captain Canada”.

Now, Ford is about to wage an election campaign largely on the strength of his stand for the Maple Leaf. He is expected to call an election next week for Feb. 27.

The Trump threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian products entering the U.S.A, although not confirmed at this point, is having a tremendous impact on Canadian politics.

In a previous Against the Flow blog we speculated that Canada could be the “Mouse the Roared” if Trump goes ahead on his tariffs. We are not sure if you have heard the noise, Mr. Trump, but the promised ROAR is already very loud and is growing rapidly.