Biden and Trudeau Teeter on the Brink

The situation of these two elected leaders, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau drew perilously close to collapse as of Wednesday. This is particularly true for President Biden who gathered White House and campaign staff around him to see if he can rescue his campaign for second term as president. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau the situation is not immediately as acute, but Biden’s withdrawal could have a cascading effect in Canada. Both men have been honorable leaders of their country, but both have made serious mistakes which have had a tremendous negative impact on their political future.

                                The Roots of Biden’s problems
The reality that President Biden’s mental acuity has slipped became clear in his calamitous debate performance last Thursday. His confusion and pauses had serious implications. Surely his loved ones and the most important people around him had cautionary advice for him before he went forward in the debate, but it all seemingly flew over his head.

Biden’s participation in the debate was indeed painful to watch.  But of even greater concern was knowing that a demagogue like Donald Trump has emerged looking stronger, despite being a compulsive liar, a convicted felon, a man who abused women and who trashed the judge who presided fairly and honorably over his trial.

This was Trump, the man who claimed during the debate that he just happened to be on the Capitol Hill the day of the January 6th insurrection and had nothing to do with calling forth the mob, causing deaths, requiring his own vice-president to hold up in a Hill office, and bringing about the desecration of the seat of American democracy.

Since the debate, the U.S. Supreme Court decision to give Trump and future presidents, immunity from prosecution for “official” actions, Biden could find new energy to fight for the majority of Americans who consider sacrosanct the Constitution of the United States of America. He could make a compelling argument that the American Revolution was fought to do away with kings, and the U.S. should not be making their presidents “monarchs” now.
Still though, Biden faces a difficult battle to overcome the damage from his debate failure.

                                 The Roots of Trudeau’s problems
As for Prime Minister Trudeau, he insists that only he can take on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his far-right politics. For too long, Mr. Trudeau has embraced style over substance when the public was crying out for plain, straight-forward words from their Prime Minister. Now he finds himself in a very weak position after the Liberal defeat in their stronghold riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s.

Sadly, for Mr. Trudeau, the Canadian who is wishing hardest for the Prime Minister to stay, is his chief potential opponent in the next election, Pierre Poilievre.  The Conservative Leader says that everything that is wrong with Canada is Mr. Trudeau’s fault. Mr. Poilievre is such a one-dimensional man that he would be lost without Mr. Trudeau to blame for all the country’s ills.

Mr. Trudeau, with all the necessary intelligence and political skills, could and should have done a better job of staying in touch with the average Canadian citizen who is unable to meet grocery, energy and housing costs.  The Prime Minister has failed to develop a concise, understandable, and doable list of priorities for his government.  Instead, he lost touch with Canadians, clearing the way for the demagogic Mr. Poilievre to draw up a list no bigger than a postage stamp (or a social media post) crafted around such simplistic slogans as “Axe the Tax.”

In fact, the Trudeau government’s area of greatest leadership for the country, that is, recognizing the dangers of climate change, has become his government’s biggest failure.  Rather than establishing the carbon tax, and explaining its benefit for all, this tax became the Trudeau government’s biggest mistake…nothing but than a failure of leadership, a symbol of arrogance.

A further disappointment with Mr. Trudeau has been his weakness as a manager of the men and women of his cabinet and caucus. His commendable goal of parity of women and men in the cabinet has become mere tokenism.  There were strong women in senior portfolios of government, but many junior ministers whether male or female remain unknowns, with little evident plan to move them up the ladder. Often, they seemed intended only to pad out the long cabinet list for public consumption and local political benefit.

Important players within the government such as Catherine McKenna, Dr. Jane Philpott, and Judy Wilson-Raybould, simply left, some of them caught in the middle of unresolved scandals of Trudeau’s own making such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, or the WE scandal where huge amounts of government funds were directed to the WE charity with close ties to the Trudeau family. Trudeau failed to realize that such scandals would eventually fall on his own head.

Other senior Liberal cabinet ministers such as Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland, are bright and unshakably loyal to him, yet seem unable to help Mr. Trudeau establish and communicate a tight government agenda.

Furthermore, the rather abrupt departure of Dr. Carolyn Bennett from cabinet probably contributed to the Liberal problems in the Toronto-St.-Paul’s riding which she had faithfully represented for 26 years. 

                  Biden has more than Trudeau to fall back on
Joe Biden’s role and loyalty in American politics has emerged over decades of steady and consequential work, including as Vice President under President Barack Obama. He was first elected to the Senate in 1972 and served 36 years in the Upper Chamber., ultimately defeating Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. Thus, despite his painful performance in the recent debate Biden has decades of service and support on which to rely.

The current Vice President, Kamala Harris, is obviously constitutionally the closest in line to Biden. However, she has recently been even less popular in public opinion polling than Biden.
Californian Governor Gavin Newsom is sometimes mentioned as an alternative to Biden for the Democrats. However, Newsom would likely have little chance of defeating Trump in November, and his approval ratings are poor in his own state.

Other Democratic party figures who show promise, but who do not, at this point, have a strong national profile include Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is  a likeable pragmatic politician, in the Biden mold. However, in the 2020 presidential campaign Klobuchar did not achieve much traction as a candidate.

The Democratic Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, is an up-and-comer with a 64 per cent approval rating in his state. Beshear favors the right to bear arms in self-defense, but he has supported Red Flag laws designed to prevent persons who might hurt themselves or others from buying guns. Beshear drew national attention speaking out against gun violence when a friend and mentor was killed in a gun attack at a local bank. In a country which values political dynasties--witness the Kennedy’s and the Bushes’-- Beshear is the son of a previous governor of Kentucky, Steve Beshear. In addition to his Democratic base, the younger Beshear is also said to be reasonably popular with Republican voters in his state.

It is doubtful whether Newsom, Klobuchar and Beshear, or for that matter, Vice President Harris, would have the stature to defeat Trump in November. Despite their doubts about Biden, voters might yet turn to him as the best leader to defeat Trump.

Another possibility, not necessarily far-fetched, would be Michelle Obama, wife of the former president. Trump would no doubt fear an African American who could consolidate the Black vote against him, and a woman of great stature to unite women who are already very skeptical of Trump. She already knows her way around the Oval Office, and has some favorable polling on her side!!

          Justin Trudeau lacks a strong legacy of political work to fall back on.
Mr. Trudeau came into politics on the coat tails of his fiery and charismatic father, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. The younger Trudeau does not claim strong academic credentials, nor can he claim a long apprenticeship as a backbench MP. His appeal of Liberal leader was one offering, “Sunny Days”, high on image, low on substance. This hurts him in attempting to recover from the shocking Toronto by-election loss. For the first time, whispering in the party has grown louder, although immediate alternate leaders have not burst to the fore.
 
The biggest name as a successor to Trudeau is Mark Carney the former Governor of both the Bank of Canada and England. He has all the glittering academic credentials from the likes of Harvard and Oxford universities. However, he offers slim experience in practical politics. Carney could face a reaction similar to that of former Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, who also had high-level academic credentials, but was criticized as being remote and “above” the common citizen.

From inside the existing Trudeau government there are two battle-tried members with promise, and who have appeal in both linguistic communities, Marc Miller, and Dominic LeBlanc.

The tousle-headed Miller represents a Quebec City area riding. He is perfectly bilingual and has an air of authenticity and plain-spokenness. When he was minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations he delivered an impressive first-ever speech in the House of Commons in the Mohawk language, an act that he considered one of “reconciliation.” He is a Trudeau loyalist and long-time friend of the Prime Minister.

LeBlanc is another steady hand who has held several tough jobs within the Trudeau government, including his present Public Safety portfolio. The senior Liberal Minister from New Brunswick has a long Liberal pedigree as the son of Romeo LeBlanc the popular former Fisheries Minister and later, Governor General of Canada. The younger LeBlanc is a cancer survivor, prompting worries that his cancer might return. Dominic Leblanc is another Trudeau loyalist, although he said recently said that Liberals must reflect on their current situation in view of the by-election loss.
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A strong sentiment within the Liberal ranks is there should be an early face-to-face (i.e. not virtual) meeting of the entire caucus. If he is to survive as Liberal Leader and Prime Minister, he must face the music with his entire caucus, not just talk to individuals he is more comfortable with. It is doubtful if Mr. Trudeau he can withstand the pressure to hold such a meeting. Behind the Conservatives in recent opinion polls by 20 to 25 per cent, it appears the Liberals are headed for a massive defeat in the next general election. Mr. Trudeau cannot assume that the mantle of being Prime Minister has been handed to him on a silver platter. He must show humility and a determination to do better.
 
If Mr. Trudeau does withdraw nothing would re-invigorate his Party more than a high-spirited leadership race with plenty of candidates and a result well before the required federal election which must occur on or before October 25, 2025.
 
Regardless of the outcome for Messrs. Biden and Trudeau, we are all condemned in the words of the old Chinese saying, “to live in interesting times.”